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Forums > CSDb Discussions > CSDb - Quantify Me Too - Hype stopped?

2015-04-10 22:24

Mr. Mouse

Registered: Dec 2001
Posts: 235

CSDb - Quantify Me Too - Hype stopped?

Heya folks.

I thought I'd get the data of CSDb again for another analysis like I did for the CSDb - Quantify Me ( CSDb - Quantify Me ) release back in 2010. It's been now more than 4 years on, would be interesting to compare the pivotal line chart from that analysis with the current state of affairs:

In the chart you see the data of today, compared to the 31st of July 2010. You can also see a lot of more additions have been made to the database, most releases attributed to the period between 1984 and, say, 1997.

At that time in 2010, 88380 releases were in my analysis, of which 76425 did have a release year listed. Today, I counted 130743 releases, with 113612 having a release year. So that's 37186 new CSDb additions with a release year since back then. Of course, most of this is due to stuff that was apparently made back in the 80s and 90s.

I would like to draw your attention to the period after 2010 however, that showed a steady increase of yearly number of releases, from 1046 in 2010 to 2037 in 2013. The latter number is touching the number in 1984, mind you. In this light, I would point out the drunken rambling in a word document I put at the end of the third of these CSDb - Quantify Me pages ( http://www.xentax.com/?page_id=235, http://www.xentax.com/?page_id=254, http://www.xentax.com/?page_id=265 ). In effect, this one: http://c64.xentax.com/downloads/csdb_quantifyme_part2_mindspook..
There I suggested (so in 2010) that we might be reliving a hyped surge in C64 activity, not unlike that seen in the Golden Age of C64 (the 80s).

Further drunken analysis might now confirm that, since the rise in the years after that is pretty clear. ;-) Where's that bottle of wodka? Anyway, what is somewhat troubling though, is that 2014 seems to be a year of decline. Has the hype stopped, ladies and gentlemen? Have we all now gone through our mid-life crises and/or died and is there no future? ;-)

2015-04-10 22:32

trent

Registered: Apr 2015
Posts: 12

Well I'm a year late I guess. Just started unboxing shit after 21 years of lugging it around with me year after year through one rental house after another after another after another then to our own home...

Nostalgia is a powerful thing - one can never truly escape it.

This stuff was such a big part of my life and development that to deny it is a disservice to what made me who I am today, and all that I've accomplished in the last two decades in life.

If my aunt hadn't given me that first C64 in 1986, and told me "learn to program", where would I be today?

Everything I have ever owned and every dime I've ever made is from programming, network management, server builds and administration.

The C64 is such an important aspect of our history as a species it helped shape the world as we know it.

Granted, it wasn't around for the long haul but it was *the* mainstream computing device for a long time, and several millions of people had their first exposure to computing on them.

PC's are ... well... they have no soul.

C64's and 128's, to this day, with all their quirks and what they are capable of doing with so little resources, still have a bit of magic to them. There's something just different enough, just unique enough, that you can't ever get out of a PC.

I don't remember much about my first {however many dozen} PC's and laptops over the years.

I still remember how the keys feel on my C128 and where I'd lay my cigarette down on the back when chatting with users on my BBS after they paged me.

You can't reproduce that feeling, excepting the one and only way to replicate it; to flip the power switch on the side....

2015-04-11 12:40

TheRyk

Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 2219

Quoting Mr. Mouse

... 2014 seems to be a year of decline. Has the hype stopped, ladies and gentlemen? Have we all now gone through our mid-life crises and/or died and is there no future? ;-)

Hard to tell :) Not sure about the hype being over. Hardware prices at ePay are still at an alltime peak.
Speaking only for myself, I'm not dead yet, "real" life is more critical than ever, project pipeline is well-jammed, and some coffins of 80s and 90s disks still wait to be transferred.

About statistics:
We could also say 2013 was - despite of no X party year - an unusual year of activity, e.g. +100 entries alone in PETSCII competition, numerous other rather well-attended CSDb standalone compos such as logo, music, font etc. Looking at 2015 so far (about 400 entries as of yet, BTW you can check out a great deal here:
http://csdb.dk/stats/stat.php#act ) about 1.600 might be what we can expect again, pretty much what we got in 2012 and 2014.

2015-04-11 13:15

chatGPZ

Registered: Dec 2001
Posts: 11357

one point in a graph like this does in no way imply a trend and is statistically irrelevant. nothing to see here, move on...

2015-04-11 14:45

Mr. Mouse

Registered: Dec 2001
Posts: 235

Quote: one point in a graph like this does in no way imply a trend and is statistically irrelevant. nothing to see here, move on...

As if I don't know that, hence the winking Smiley. When will you ever learn to stop being such a prick. *rolleyes*

If anything, I eagerly await the 2015 data to show that the trend continues upward. :)

2015-04-11 17:33

chatGPZ

Registered: Dec 2001
Posts: 11357

hit a sore spot eh?

i eagerly await this lame stats wanking to turn into actual release making for that matter.

2015-04-11 20:44

Mr. Mouse

Registered: Dec 2001
Posts: 235

*chuckle* internet trolls never hit any sore spots.

But you are right about two things though: I do wank to statistics, having an epidemiological background, and I agree that releasing C64 software is preferable. :)

Nevertheless, stats can tell us a lot about the world, and even a little bit about CSDb and the dynamics of the releases these days. Since 2010, for two years in a row we saw a linear increase in the numbers (+400 each consecutive year), which is unprecedented since the year 2000. When, as is the case here, over a time span of about 15 years this never happened, then even a die-hard conservative epidemiologist will raise some eyebrows and ask "what's going on here?". And it just so happens that my analysis in 2010 was predictive of this. Be it done in a drunken state in a piece called mindspook. ;-)

And that in my opinion is the beauty of stats, of registries and of dirty data collections. Call it my hobby. I just like numbers. And I like to dig deep to find confounding factors.

2015-04-11 20:50

chatGPZ

Registered: Dec 2001
Posts: 11357

Quote:

internet trolls never hit any sore spots.

just like statistics don't ever really tell us anything, except for what the one making them wants to tell us.

2015-04-11 21:33

Mr. Mouse

Registered: Dec 2001
Posts: 235

Quote: Quote:
internet trolls never hit any sore spots.

just like statistics don't ever really tell us anything, except for what the one making them wants to tell us.

I see. Well, in that case, I have some further reading that might interest you as well: http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,..

Back to topic, this is the distribution of the release types by release year, and it tells us the proportion of all the different types per year. Looks like especially large (relative) spikes were seen in graphics and music (and cracks) the past few years.